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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."