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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and recent strugglers improving together. Under an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still