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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.